New ask Hacker News story: Ask HN: What are the algorithms used by predictions markets like Polymarket?
Ask HN: What are the algorithms used by predictions markets like Polymarket?
5 by callmeed | 8 comments on Hacker News.
I am curious how prediction markets like polymarket and kalshi work behind the scenes. I assume it's more like stock options than sports betting. Is there something like a market maker to help provide liquidity? Is it setting probabilities/prices using something like black-scholes? How would you design a very simple prediction market MVP?
5 by callmeed | 8 comments on Hacker News.
I am curious how prediction markets like polymarket and kalshi work behind the scenes. I assume it's more like stock options than sports betting. Is there something like a market maker to help provide liquidity? Is it setting probabilities/prices using something like black-scholes? How would you design a very simple prediction market MVP?
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